Hi, I’m Ron Raymond, founder of ATS STATS, and welcome to today’s podcast. Let’s dive into the Raymond Report Sports Betting System and break it down in just five minutes. I’ll share actionable insights and examples so you can become a more informed bettor. Whether you’re a casual fan or a seasoned sports investor, these tips will elevate your game.
1. Shop for Value – Play the Percentages
The two pillars of successful betting are value and percentages. Let’s break these down with examples:
- Shop for Value ($):
Example: Miami Dolphins (-150) vs. New York Jets (+130).
The Dolphins are favorites, but the Jets at +130 might offer better value if you believe they have a legitimate chance to win. Value means finding odds that offer a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, not just betting on the favorite. - Play the Percentages (%):
Example: Philadelphia Eagles (10-1) vs. Dallas Cowboys (7-4).
The Eagles’ 90.9% win rate makes them reliable, especially at home. Long-term success comes from betting on teams with consistent performance rather than focusing on a single game’s outcome.
2. Understand Team Categories – Examples
Teams in the Raymond Report are grouped into three categories based on win percentages:
- A-Type Teams (Winning 60% or More):
Example: Kansas City Chiefs (2023 season).
Elite teams with consistent performance, but their short odds mean you need to find value in spreads or totals. - B-Type Teams (Winning Between 50% and 59.9%):
Example: Seattle Seahawks (2023 season).
Middle-of-the-pack teams that offer good value when matched against weaker opponents or in favorable spots, like home games. - C-Type Teams (Winning Below 49.9%):
Example: Chicago Bears (2023 season).
Struggling teams that carry long odds. While they’re tempting, only bet on them when specific circumstances, like a home game or a matchup against another C-type team, make sense.
3. Avoid Betting on Teams in a Bearish Cycle
A bearish cycle indicates a losing streak (0-7, 1-6, or 2-5 in the last seven games). These teams are high-risk, especially on the road.
- Bearish Example: New England Patriots (2023 season).
If the Patriots are 2-5 in their last seven games and visiting an A-type team like the Baltimore Ravens, it’s a risky bet. - When to Consider Betting on a Bearish Team:
If they’re at home against another C-type team, you might find value, but approach cautiously.
4. Leverage the Value Index (VI)
The Value Index tracks a team’s recent trends:
- Bullish (Upward Trend): 7-0, 6-1, or 5-2.
Example: San Francisco 49ers after five consecutive wins.
Bet on bullish teams at home or on favorable spreads, but beware of inflated lines. - Stable (Neutral Trend): 3-4 or 4-3.
Example: Cincinnati Bengals alternating wins and losses.
Neutral teams often provide value as underdogs or when playing bearish opponents. - Bearish (Downward Trend): 0-7, 1-6, or 2-5.
Example: Arizona Cardinals on a losing streak.
Avoid betting on bearish teams unless you spot a unique advantage.
5. Maintain Disciplined Money Management
Treat every bet with the same discipline, no matter its size.
- Example of Disciplined Betting:
You’re wagering $10 units. Using the formula (Team Type + Home/Away + Cycle):- Betting on the Dallas Cowboys (B-type) at home in a neutral cycle = 4-unit wager ($40).
- Betting on the New York Giants (C-type) in a bearish cycle = Pass or 1-unit wager ($10).
This discipline helps protect your bankroll and ensures long-term success.
6. Avoid Betting Against A-Type Teams at Home
Betting against A-type teams at home is rarely a smart move, especially when they’re on an upward trend.
- Example: Buffalo Bills hosting Miami Dolphins.
The Bills, an A-type team with a bullish trend (6-1), are tough to beat at home. Even if the Dolphins are enticing underdogs, betting against the Bills is a high-risk play.
7. Apply the 24-Hour Rule After Big Wins
Avoid overconfidence after a big win.
- Example:
You hit a $500 parlay on Sunday. Instead of immediately doubling down on Monday Night Football, take a day off to reassess and plan your next bets. This keeps your emotions in check and prevents reckless wagers.
8. Never Force Bets for Action
Sometimes the best bet is no bet.
- Example:
It’s a slow sports day, and you’re tempted to bet on a hockey game you haven’t researched. Skip it! Wait for better opportunities where you can make an informed decision.
9. Avoid Betting on Baseball Doubleheaders
Doubleheaders are full of variables like lineup rotations and pitcher fatigue, making them hard to predict.
- Example: Yankees vs. Red Sox doubleheader.
Game 1 might feature the ace pitchers, while Game 2 could see backups or experimental lineups. The inconsistency makes it risky to bet on both games.
10. Follow the Raymond Report’s Money Management Formula
Bet sizes should align with the team type, location, and cycle:
- A stable B-type team at home warrants a larger wager (e.g., 4 units).
- A bearish C-type team on the road? Either pass or bet the minimum.
Final Thoughts
By following the Raymond Report system, you’ll approach sports betting like an investor, not a gambler. Remember:
- Focus on value and percentages.
- Use team categories and trends to guide your decisions.
- Practice disciplined money management to protect your bankroll.
Thanks for tuning in! Good luck with your bets, and remember: It’s not about beating teams—it’s about beating the bookmaker’s numbers.
