As we enter Week 9, the focus shifts to an intriguing matchup between the New England Patriots and the Tennessee Titans, where the Titans are the 3-point home favorites, with an over/under of 36.5. Using Raymond Report principles, we’ll break down the essential factors for this game, including lineup insights, game cycles, and potential betting value.
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3 (+135) | Patriots +3 (-200) | Total: 36.5
Game Time: Sunday, November 3, 2024, 2:00 PM ET
Projected Lineup:
- Patriots
- QB: Drake Maye (Questionable)
- RB: Rhamondre Stevenson
- WR: Demario Douglas, Kayshon Boutte, Kendrick Bourne
- TE: Hunter Henry
- K: Joey Slye
- Titans
- QB: Will Levis (Questionable)
- RB: Tony Pollard
- WR: Calvin Ridley, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tyler Boyd
- TE: Chigoziem Okonkwo
- K: Nick Folk
Raymond Report Fundamentals: Key Factors
This game features two C-type teams, each struggling to find their footing this season. Both New England and Tennessee have shown inconsistency in performance, creating a matchup with potential value for bettors willing to dig deeper into team cycles and metrics.
- Historical Value Index and Point Spread Positioning
- Despite their record, the Patriots hold a Value Index (VI) of +7.25, meaning they are often around 7.25-point underdogs in similar road matchups. The Titans, with a VI of -5.07, are generally favored by approximately five points in these conditions. This gap suggests an opportunity for value, particularly as the Titans’ positioning as favorites does not align with their recent performance struggles, especially defensively.
- Cycle Analysis: Titans in a Bearish Phase
- Tennessee enters Week 9 in a bearish cycle, showing signs of defensive collapse over the past three games, where they allowed an average of 35.3 points. In Raymond Report terms, bearish cycles are difficult to break, particularly for teams that have struggled to cover spreads in recent matchups (1-4 ATS over their last five). Tennessee's high recent strength of schedule (88.9%) emphasizes their difficulties against tougher teams, especially when defending against mid-to-lower-ranked offenses.
- Chances of Covering and Game Totals
- Based on the Raymond Report’s Chances of Winning (C.O.W.) and Chances of Covering (C.O.C.) metrics, Tennessee shows a 36.36% C.O.W. and a 93% C.O.C., signaling high expectations for ATS success compared to New England’s 31.82% C.O.W. and 69% C.O.C. Additionally, with both teams’ games going over the set total frequently (Patriots 5-3 O/U, Titans 4-3 O/U), this contest could lean toward a total play rather than a strict ATS focus, especially given the low total line of 36.5.
- Situational and Cycle Stats: Patriots’ Road Performance vs. Titans’ Home Weakness
- Tennessee has struggled as a home favorite, with a record of 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS. Meanwhile, New England’s ATS record on the road (2-5-1) doesn’t boast strength but suggests an edge due to the Titans' inability to capitalize at home. As the Patriots have managed to stay competitive against struggling teams, this matchup could see the Patriots cover the spread despite their underdog status.
- Offensive Inefficiency and Defensive Concerns
- Both teams lack offensive consistency, but New England has a slightly more stable defense. The Titans, having surrendered an average of 30.5 points at home, face a Patriots squad that averages 15.5 points but has shown glimpses of offensive capability against weaker defenses. Given the Titans' defensive lapses and the Patriots' recent game against a comparable opponent, the scoreline could play close, aligning with the Raymond Report's forecast that slightly favors the Titans.
ATS STATS Recommendation:
The Titans’ status as a favorite conflicts with their recent bearish cycle, high defensive vulnerability, and lack of success at home. The lean is on New England to cover the +3 spread while considering the over 36.5 points as a secondary option.
In Summary:
- ATS Lean: Patriots +3
- Total Lean: Over 36.5
For more analysis and insights like these, explore ATS STATS and the full suite of Raymond Report tools, designed to help bettors make informed decisions across the NFL season.
