Categories: Sports Handicapping

Longshots to Watch: Golf Betting Tips for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Arnold Palmer Invitational is set to take place this week from March 2-5, 2023, at the Bay Hill Golf Course. This year’s purse is set at $20,000,000, and some exciting players are in the field.

Based on the odds, let’s look at some golf betting tips for this course and the top three picks to win the tournament. Bay Hill Golf Course is known for its challenging layout and thick, rough, and undulating greens. Accuracy off the tee and solid iron play will be critical for players to succeed on this course. The par-5s at Bay Hill offer players birdie opportunities, so look for players who can take advantage of those holes.


Based on the odds provided by Bookmaker Sportsbook, the top three picks to win the tournament are:

  1. Jon Rahm (+705) – Rahm is coming off a strong performance at the Genesis Invitational, winning the tournament at -17, while shooting 267 over the 4 day round. He has been one of the most consistent players on the PGA Tour over the past few years and has the game to handle a challenging course like Bay Hill.
  2. Rory McIlroy (+785) – McIlroy has had some success at Bay Hill, winning the tournament in 2018. He has struggled a bit with his consistency over the past year, but he is still one of the best players in the world and can win on any given week. Rory shot a -4 under par at the Genesis Invitational and finished T29 over the 4 days shooting 280 overall.
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+945) – Scheffler is a rising star on the PGA Tour and has shown that he can compete with the best players in the world. He finished T12 at the Genesis Invitational shooting -8 over the 4 days, including 68 in Round 2 and the final Sunday. Scheffler has the game to handle the tough conditions at Bay Hill.

Here are some longshot picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational based solely on their past performance at Bay Hill:

  1. Sungjae Im (+3050): Sungjae Im is a promising young golfer who has shown flashes of brilliance on the PGA Tour. He finished T3 in the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2020 and T4 in 2021, indicating that he can compete at this course.
  2. Jason Day (+3151): Jason Day has won the Arnold Palmer Invitational twice in the past (2016, 2018), and has shown that he can thrive on this course. While he has struggled with injuries in recent years, he has made three top-10 finishes 87 times since joining the tour in 2008.
  3. Alex Noren (+11550): Alex Noren has never won the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but he has finished in the top-25 in each of his last three starts at this event. He is also coming off of a T9 finish at the Genesis Invitational, indicating that he may be poised for a breakthrough performance. At +11550, he represents a potentially lucrative longshot bet.


These players may be considered longshots to win based on the current odds, but they have all shown that they can play well at Bay Hill in the past. Keep an eye on them and consider them for your golf betting picks.


When betting on golf, it’s important to consider a few key factors. Look for players who have a strong history at the course, are in good form coming into the tournament, and have the game to handle the specific challenges of the course. It’s also a good idea to consider each player’s odds and look for value in the betting lines.


Overall, the Arnold Palmer Invitational is shaping up to be an exciting tournament, with some of the best players in the world competing for the $20,000,000 purse. Keep an eye on the top players in the field and look for value in the betting lines to make the most of your golf betting experience.

Ron Raymond

Ron Raymond is a well-known sports handicapper who runs ATS Stats and the Raymond REPORT. He has over 21 years of experience in the industry and provides expert analysis and predictions for various sports, including football, baseball, hockey, and basketball.

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