Betting on baseball can be an exciting and potentially profitable pastime during the summer months, but it's crucial to approach it with a well-informed and disciplined strategy.
Here are the top 10 things to consider when betting on baseball:
Starting Pitchers
In my view, the starting pitchers are among the most important factors when betting on baseball. They can have a significant impact on the outcome of the game and can also influence the total number of runs scored. In fact, their recent form, pitching style, and stats can help you lean toward an informed betting decision.
Injuries
Injuries can significantly impact a game's outcome, so consider them when placing your bets. Look for any injuries to key players, such as starting pitchers or power hitters, and consider how they might affect the team's performance.
Bullpens
The bullpen can also have a significant impact on the outcome of a game. A strong bullpen can help to protect a lead or keep a game close, while a weak bullpen can lead to blown leads and high-scoring games. Look at the bullpen's recent form, including the number of innings pitched, the number of runs allowed, and the number of strikeouts. If you don’t like or trust a team’s bullpen, consider wagering on that team in the 1st five innings.
Matchups
Matchups between teams can also be a key factor when betting on baseball. Look at each team's recent form, including their win-loss record, home and away record, and performance against similar opponents. This can help you identify favorable matchups and make informed betting decisions. The PVI-SOS at the Raymond Report is an excellent resource for this situational handicapping factor.
Home Field Advantage
Home-field advantage can also be a significant factor in baseball. Teams tend to perform better at home i.e.: Coors Field comes to mind; thanks to the familiarity of the ballpark and the support of the home crowd. Consider the impact of home-field advantage when making your betting decisions.
Weather
Weather conditions can also impact baseball games, especially at fields like Wrigley and Coors, particularly for games played in outdoor ballparks. Rain and wind can affect the ball's trajectory and the players' ability to perform. Look at the weather forecast and consider how it might affect the game's outcome.
Umpires
The umpires can also have an impact on the outcome of a game. Some umpires have a wide strike zone, which can lead to more walks and runs scored, while others are known for having a tight strike zone, leading to more strikeouts and lower-scoring games.
Trends
Trends like the 80% Club section at ATS Stats can also be a valuable tool for baseball bettors. Look for trends in each team's performance, such as their recent form or performance against left-handed or right-handed pitchers. These trends can help you identify value bets and make informed decisions.
Bet Types
There are many different types of bets to choose from when betting on baseball, including moneyline bets, run-line bets, totals, and prop bets. Choose a bet type at your favorite sportsbook that you're comfortable with and that aligns with your betting strategy.
Money Management
Money management is a crucial element of any successful betting strategy. Set a budget for your betting, use a fixed percentage of your bankroll as your betting unit, and avoid chasing losses by betting more than you can afford to lose. *Tip: Check our latest money management article.
Finally, betting on baseball can be a fun and potentially profitable hobby, but it's essential to approach it with a well-informed and disciplined strategy. By considering these ten factors, you can make more informed betting decisions and maximize your chances of success.
