Raymond Report NHL Sports Betting Index: A Season-to-Date Analysis (11/21/24)

As the NHL season progresses into late November, we have gathered extensive data using the Raymond Report Sports Betting Index (SBI) to analyze the performance of favorites, underdogs, and totals. Bettors relying on trends and SBI ratings can now leverage these insights to refine their strategies. Here's a breakdown of the market trends and actionable insights for NHL bettors.

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Favorites vs. Underdogs (Moneyline Trends)

• Year-to-Date (YTD):
  Favorites are winning at 60.6%, earning a BULLISH rating, while underdogs trail at 39.4%. This trend indicates a profitable season for favorites overall.
• Short-Term Trends:
  Over the past:
  • 1 Day: Only 40% of favorites won, resulting in a BEARISH rating.
  • 3 Days: Favorites are slightly worse at 38%, remaining BEARISH.
  • 7 Days: A more balanced 49.4% win rate, improving to a NEUTRAL rating.
• Month-to-Date:
  In November, favorites have maintained a win rate above 55%, suggesting stability and reinforcing the NEUTRAL to BULLISH sentiment.

Key Takeaway: While favorites have performed well YTD, short-term trends suggest underdogs are currently outperforming, especially over the past 3 days. Bettors should keep an eye on the market as momentum could shift.

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Over vs. Under (Total Goals)

• Year-to-Date (YTD):
  Overs have hit at 48.6%, earning a NEUTRAL SBI rating. Conversely, unders lead slightly at 51.4%.
• Short-Term Trends:
  • 1 Day: Overs struggled, hitting only 20%, marking a BEARISH rating.
  • 3 Days: A slight improvement at 42.3%, but still BEARISH.
  • 7 Days: 46.7%, approaching NEUTRAL territory.
• Month-to-Date:
  Overs remain underwhelming in November, hovering below 50%, with no strong directional bias.

Key Takeaway: The totals market has been relatively balanced YTD, with a slight edge to unders. Bettors targeting overs may need to focus on specific matchups rather than broad trends.

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Against the Spread (ATS) Trends

• Year-to-Date (YTD):
  Favorites cover the puck line at 46.1%, earning a NEUTRAL rating, while underdogs cover at 53.9%.
• Short-Term Trends:
  • 1 Day: ATS favorites covered only 40% of the time, rated BEARISH.
  • 3 Days: ATS favorites dropped further to 27.7%, deepening the BEARISH trend.
  • 7 Days: 37.1%, still struggling and rated BEARISH.

Key Takeaway: The puck line market has consistently favored underdogs, with ATS favorites underperforming significantly in the short term. Bettors backing underdogs on the puck line have likely found value.

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Actionable Insights for NHL Bettors

1. Focus on Underdogs in the Short Term:
   While favorites are BULLISH over the long term, the past week has seen underdogs capitalize. Bettors may consider selectively wagering on underdogs, particularly in evenly matched games.
2. Totals Leaning Under:
   The market has shown a slight preference for unders, especially over the past month. If you're betting on totals, targeting games with strong defensive teams or underperforming offenses might be wise.
3. ATS Underdogs as Consistent Performers:
   Underdogs have covered the puck line more reliably than favorites YTD. Consider betting on underdogs to cover, especially when paired with a solid goalie or competitive recent form.
4. Avoid Chasing Short-Term Trends:
   Though favorites underperformed recently, the season-long trend remains strong. Use recent data to inform decisions, but don’t abandon long-term patterns.

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Final Thoughts

The Raymond Report's NHL SBI continues to be an invaluable tool for identifying market trends. As of now, the NHL betting market favors strategic underdog plays and unders, especially in short-term scenarios. Bettors should leverage these insights while remaining flexible to shifts in momentum.

By staying tuned to the SBI ratings and keeping a disciplined approach, NHL bettors can maximize their edge as the season unfolds. For more tools and insights, explore the Raymond Report at ATS STATS, your trusted source for sports betting analytics.

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Written by Ron Raymond, Founder of ATS STATS.