🏒 Chalk vs Value – NHL Market Pulse (Mar. 21, 2025)

Welcome to another edition of Chalk vs Value, where we strip the juice off the NHL board and find out who’s the chalk, who’s the trap, and who’s offering sweet underdog value. Let’s skate into tonight’s Columbus vs Pittsburgh showdown.

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🧊 Columbus Blue Jackets (+100) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (-141)

Line: PIT -1.5 | Total: 6.5
Forecast: PIT 3.63 – CBJ 2.76
VI Edge: PIT -135
C.O.W. (Chances of Winning): PIT 60.14% | CBJ 35.29%

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🧠 Chalk Perspective: Pittsburgh Penguins

Let’s be honest — betting Pittsburgh is like ordering your favorite meal: it’s comforting, but will it hit the spot? The Pens have won 6 of their last 10 vs Columbus and hold a dominant 28-6 SU home record against the Jackets dating back to 1996. They've cashed the puck line in 4 of their last 5 wins, and they’re 4-1 SU in their last 5 games overall, scoring 4+ goals in 4 straight.

Add in 2 days rest, a bounce-back spot after a 4-2 loss to the Islanders, and a Jackets squad that couldn’t score on an empty net with a GPS — it’s easy to see why Pittsburgh is the chalk here.

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💣 Value Perspective: Columbus Blue Jackets

Here’s the thing — Columbus is colder than a Tim Hortons iced cap in January. They’ve lost 5 straight, scoring just 0.8 goals per game during that stretch. Yikes. However, they’re 10-8 ATS in their last 18 on the road and 5-5 ATS in their last 10 visits to Pittsburgh. If they can catch the Pens snoozing before their Florida trip, this could be a “hold your nose and take the price” spot.

But the math doesn’t lie: Columbus is allowing 3.3 GA over their last 10 and went scoreless in their last game vs Florida. This is a team playing out the string, with one foot already on the golf course.

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🔍 The Sharp Angle: OVER 6.5 Goals

Both teams sit at 47% COGO, but Pittsburgh has hit the OVER in 4 of their last 5 games, while Columbus is due for offensive regression — they’re not that bad. Pens have scored 4+ in 4 straight, and this feels like another 4-2 or 5-2 type result.

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📊 Final Thoughts

• Chalk Play: PIT -1.5 (+141) – The Jackets just aren’t scoring.
• Value Play: OVER 6.5 – Pens offense is humming, and Jackets could chip in late.
• Buyer Beware: Jackets on 0 days rest vs a team with 2 days off = trouble.

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🧱 CHALK or 💎 VALUE Verdict:

CHALK – Pittsburgh -1.5
VALUE – OVER 6.5

Don't fade the Penguins just because the line looks fishy — sometimes fish are just… fish. 🐟

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🚨 Follow the full “Chalk vs Value” series at ATS STATS and join the conversation on X using the hashtag #ChalkVsValue.

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