The NFL season has kicked off with some intriguing betting patterns, as observed through the Raymond Report Sports Betting Index (SBI) charts and data. Here's a detailed look at how favorites, underdogs, overs, and unders have performed in the first two weeks of the season.
Week 1 Recap:
- Straight Up (SU) Favorites:
- Favorites dominated Week 1 with a 87.5% win rate, classified as Bullish on the SBI rating. This indicates a strong performance by the favored teams, aligning with bettors' expectations.
- Over/Under (O/U):
- The Over/Under market saw a more balanced outcome, with the overs hitting at 56.3%, placing this category in the Neutral range on the SBI rating.
- Against the Spread (ATS):
- Favorites also had a strong showing against the spread, covering 62.5% of the time. This performance was classified as Bullish, reflecting that many favorites not only won but also covered the spread comfortably.
Week 2 Recap:
- Straight Up (SU) Favorites:
- The win rate for favorites dipped to 53.3%, bringing it down to a Neutral rating. This suggests that Week 2 saw a more competitive balance between favorites and underdogs.
- Over/Under (O/U):
- A significant shift occurred in the totals market, with unders hitting at 66.7%, placing the category in the Bearish zone. This trend indicates that Week 2 games were generally lower scoring than expected.
- Against the Spread (ATS):
- The favorites' ATS performance dropped to 40%, indicating a Bearish trend. This suggests that underdogs were not only more competitive but also provided good value against the spread.
Year-to-Date (YTD) Overview:
- Straight Up (SU) Favorites:
- Overall, favorites have maintained a 70.4% win rate through the first two weeks, staying in the Bullish zone. This high win rate shows that while underdogs had some success in Week 2, favorites are still the safer bet.
- Over/Under (O/U):
- The YTD Over/Under results are quite balanced, with overs hitting 44.8% of the time, which places this category in the Neutral zone. This suggests no clear trend yet in the total points market.
- Against the Spread (ATS):
- The favorites' ATS record stands at 51.3%, which is also within the Neutral range. This indicates that while favorites have been winning more often than not, they haven't consistently covered the spread.
Weekly Breakdown:
- Week 2 SU Favorites:
- September 15th: 8-6 (57%)
- September 12th: 0-1 (0%)
- Week 2 Over/Under:
- September 15th: 5-9 (36% Overs)
- September 12th: 0-1 (0% Overs)
- Week 1 SU Favorites:
- September 9th: 1-0 (100%)
- September 8th: 11-2 (85%)
- September 6th: 1-0 (100%)
- September 5th: 1-0 (100%)
- Week 1 Over/Under:
- September 9th: 1-0 (100% Overs)
- September 8th: 6-7 (46% Overs)
- September 6th: 1-0 (100% Overs)
- September 5th: 1-0 (100% Overs)
Key Insights:
- Favorites vs. Underdogs:
- Week 1 heavily favored the chalk with favorites performing well both SU and ATS. However, Week 2 showcased a more balanced competition, indicating a shift in the betting landscape.
- Over/Under Trends:
- While Week 1 leaned slightly towards the overs, Week 2 saw a noticeable tilt towards the unders. Bettors should consider this emerging trend as the season progresses.
- ATS Performance:
- The YTD ATS performance suggests a more cautious approach when betting on favorites to cover, as they have only managed a neutral rating thus far.
Raymond Report Summary:
The first two weeks of the NFL season have provided a dynamic betting environment. Week 1 was dominated by favorites, both SU and ATS, while Week 2 offered more opportunities for underdogs and saw a trend towards lower-scoring games. As we move further into the season, keeping an eye on these trends using the Raymond Report's SBI charts and data will be crucial for making informed betting decisions.