In the NFL, the dynamics of home and road advantages, combined with being favored or an underdog, create interesting patterns for bettors. Based on the provided data from four NFL seasons (2021, 2022, 2023 Week 3, and a historical snapshot from 2019), let's dive into these roles and the associated betting implications.
1. Home Favorites:
Year
ATS Win %
SU Win %
2023 (W3)
43%
54%
2022
46%
67%
2021
48%
62%
2019
46%
65%
3 Year Avg.
46.6%
65%
Against The Spread (ATS): On average, Home Favorites have covered the spread just 46.6% of the time over the last three full seasons. This suggests that bettors might want to exercise caution when backing Home Favorites.
Straight Up (SU): However, in terms of outright victories, Home Favorites have a decent winning percentage, averaging 65% over the last three seasons. This indicates that while they often win, they don't necessarily cover the expected margin.
2. Home Underdogs:
Year
ATS Win %
SU Win %
2023 (W3)
47%
33%
2022
58%
39%
2021
50%
35%
2019
46%
33%
3 Year Avg.
51.3%
35.6%
ATS: Home Underdogs have covered the spread at a slightly better rate than Home Favorites, with an average of 51.3%. This could be a valuable insight for bettors looking for value bets.
SU: Expectedly, Home Underdogs have a lower winning percentage, averaging just 35.6%. The potential value lies in the ATS results rather than outright wins.
3. Road Favorites:
Year
ATS Win %
SU Win %
2023 (W3)
53%
67%
2022
42%
61%
2021
50%
65%
2019
54%
67%
3 Year Avg.
50.0%
65%
ATS: Road Favorites have been unpredictable ATS, with an average of 50% over the last three seasons.
SU: Similar to Home Favorites, Road Favorites have a commendable winning percentage of 65%, suggesting that while they frequently win on the road, they're coin-flip bets ATS.
4. Road Underdogs:
Year
ATS Win %
SU Win %
2023 (W3)
57%
46%
2022
54%
33%
2021
53%
35%
2019
54%
35%
3 Year Avg.
53.6%
34.3%
ATS: Interestingly, Road Underdogs have consistently performed well ATS, covering at an average of 53.6% over the past three seasons. This could be a lucrative situation for bettors.
SU: As expected, Road Underdogs have a low winning percentage, averaging 34.3% across the past three years.
Summary:
When analyzing betting scenarios:
Home Favorites often win their games (65%) but are risky in terms of covering the spread (46.6%).
Home Underdogs are slightly better at covering the spread (51.3%) than winning outright (35.6%).
Road Favorites have a strong win rate (65%) but are inconsistent against the spread (50%).
Road Underdogs, while not often victorious (34.3%), provide good value ATS (53.6%).
Bettors should always use historical data in conjunction with other research tools, including current team performance, injuries, and other situational factors when making their picks. For those looking to refine their betting strategies further, incorporating expert NFL picks from Doc's Sports can provide an additional edge.
