When it comes to betting on the NFL, seasoned bettors look for every edge they can find. One of the most compelling statistics is the historical success rate of teams under certain circumstances. As we head into Week 3 of the NFL season, here's a deep dive into some of the most fascinating trends and patterns that have held up over 80% of the time:
When it comes to betting on the NFL, seasoned bettors look for every edge they can find. One of the most compelling statistics is the historical success rate of teams under certain circumstances. As we head into Week 3 of the NFL season, here's a deep dive into some of the most fascinating trends and patterns that have held up over 80% of the time:
1. **The Dominance of the Ravens:**
– The Ravens are a staggering 19-1 SU when they've played as a -7.0 to -9.5 home favorite after a division game since 1996.
– They also boast an 18-1 SU record under the same spread when coming off an AFC North division opponent.
– Furthermore, the Ravens have a solid 12-1 SU record when playing as a -7.0 to -9.5 home favorite after a win over an AFC North division opponent.
2. **Green Bay's September Streak:**
– The Packers are almost unbeatable at home in September over the past decade, with a 15-1 SU record.
3. **Kansas City Chiefs' Formidable Home Record:**
– The Chiefs have a remarkable record when the total points is at 47.5 over the last seven years, standing at 14-1 SU.
– They also showcase a strong 12-1 SU record when played as a -10.0 or more home favorite after a road win as a favorite in the past decade.
4. **Betting on the “Under”:**
– Betting on the “Under” seems to be a strong choice when the Broncos play away and are coming off a home loss as a favorite in the past seven years, with a trend of 1-12-0.
– Similarly, the Commanders' games also tend to stay under the total when they play at home before a conference game, showcasing a 1-11-0 trend in the last two years.
5. **49ers' Home Dominance:**
– The 49ERS have been almost unbeatable with a 29-4 SU record when played as a -10.0 or more home favorite coming off a road ATS loss since 1996.
– They also have a staggering 73-15 SU record when played as a -10.0 or more home favorite as the home team since 1996.
6. **Don't Count Out the Cowboys:**
– The Cowboys are a force to reckon with when played as a 10 or more away favorite after back-to-back SU wins, with a 9-1 SU record since 1996.
7. **Overs and Unders:**
– The Over seems to be a solid bet for the Chargers when they play away after two consecutive losses, with a 9-1-0 trend over the last seven years.
– In contrast, betting on the Under might be a good idea when the Chiefs play at home as a -10.0 or more favorite with 6 days off, showcasing a 2-11-0 trend in the past decade.
8. **Watch Out for the Vikings:**
– The Vikings have a strong 10-1 SU record when playing at home after facing an NFC East division opponent in the last decade.
It's essential to note that while these trends provide a historical perspective, they don't guarantee future outcomes. Betting always comes with risks. However, understanding these patterns can offer bettors a valuable lens through which to evaluate potential wagers.
Always gamble responsibly, and may the odds be ever in your favor in Week 3!
