Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens: Game Forecast and Analysis (11/03/24)

The Denver Broncos visit the Baltimore Ravens in what promises to be a test of the Broncos' defensive mettle against Baltimore’s high-powered offense. Here’s a closer look at both teams’ stats and trends to predict the likely outcome of the game.

Team Averages: Offensive and Defensive Performance

All Games Average:

• Denver Broncos: 21.63 points scored, 15 points allowed.
• Baltimore Ravens: 30.25 points scored, 26.13 points allowed.

Edge: Baltimore on offense. Baltimore’s scoring average outpaces Denver’s, especially when combined with Denver’s modest scoring output.

Home vs. Road Games Performance

• Denver on the Road: 22.25 points scored, 13 points allowed.
• Baltimore at Home: 29.33 points scored, 19.67 points allowed.

Edge: Baltimore, especially on offense. The Ravens’ offensive firepower at home could be a challenge for Denver, although Denver’s defense has been more effective on the road.

Recent Performance Trends

Last 3 Games:

• Denver: 25.67 points scored, 15.67 points allowed.
• Baltimore: 31.67 points scored, 27.67 points allowed.

Edge: Baltimore on offense, Denver on defense. Baltimore has maintained high scoring recently, but Denver’s defense could present a strong challenge if they stay consistent.

Situational and Opponent-Based Performance

• Against Division Opponents:
• Denver: 25 points scored, 20.5 points allowed.
• Baltimore: 32.5 points scored, 33.5 points allowed.

Edge: Balanced, slight edge to Denver on defense. Baltimore has allowed high scores against divisional teams, which could present scoring opportunities for Denver.

• Against Top Ranked Opponents:
• Denver: 11 points scored, 18 points allowed.
• Baltimore: 28.33 points scored, 20 points allowed.

Edge: Baltimore on offense and defense. Baltimore’s offense remains strong against top-ranked teams, while Denver’s scoring has been minimal in these matchups.

Rest Day Impact

• After a Loss:
• Denver: 21.67 points scored, 10 points allowed.
• Baltimore: 25.5 points scored, 25.5 points allowed.

Edge: Denver on defense. Denver’s defense has shown resilience after a loss, which could limit Baltimore’s scoring effectiveness if they maintain form.

Situational Averages: After Wins and Losses

• After a Win:
• Denver: 22 points scored, 16 points allowed.
• Baltimore: 34.2 points scored, 26.2 points allowed.
• After a Loss:
• Denver: 21.67 points scored, 10 points allowed.
• Baltimore: 25.5 points scored, 25.5 points allowed.

Edge: Balanced, slight edge to Baltimore on offense. Baltimore scores significantly higher after a win, suggesting they are able to carry momentum well, whereas Denver’s defense shows strength after a loss, especially in limiting opponents’ scoring.

Game Forecast and Edge Summary

Based on this analysis, the Baltimore Ravens hold a significant edge over the Denver Broncos due to the following factors:

1. Offensive Firepower: Baltimore’s offense has consistently outperformed Denver’s, both at home and in recent games, which could lead to a high-scoring performance.
2. Situational Strength After Wins: Baltimore’s scoring trends after wins show they maintain momentum, suggesting they could control the game tempo.
3. Denver’s Defensive Challenge: Denver’s defense has been solid, particularly on the road and after losses, so while Baltimore may score, Denver might be able to contain them enough to keep the game close.

Final Prediction

Considering Baltimore’s home advantage and higher-scoring offense, we forecast a Baltimore Ravens win in a moderately high-scoring game. Denver’s defense could keep the Ravens from running away with the game, but the offensive edge leans heavily towards Baltimore.

Forecasted Score: Baltimore Ravens 30, Denver Broncos 20