In this report, we will examine the Cincinnati Bengals' performance against teams categorized as A (60% or higher win percentage), B (50% to 59.9% win percentage), and C (below 50% win percentage). The data is derived from the Famous Raymond Report at ATS STATS, focusing on Cincinnati's point spread records over recent seasons.
Performance Against A Grade Teams
Summary:
- Point Spread Record: 20-13-2
- Straight-Up Record: 16-18-0
- Over/Under Record: 14-20-0
- Average Line as Favorite: -4.58
- Average Line as Underdog: +6.46
- Average Score: 23.5 (Cincinnati) – 23.8 (Opponent)
Analysis:
Cincinnati has shown competitiveness against A Grade teams, maintaining a solid point spread record despite a losing straight-up record. Their ability to cover as underdogs indicates their resilience and competitiveness in high-stakes matchups.
Key Games:
- Win vs. Kansas City Chiefs (2022-01-30): Cincinnati covered as 6.5-point underdogs with a 27-24 victory, showcasing their ability to upset top teams.
- Loss vs. Kansas City Chiefs (2023-01-29): Cincinnati lost 23-20 as 2.5-point underdogs, highlighting their competitiveness even in defeat.
Performance Against B Grade Teams
Summary:
- Point Spread Record: 15-10-2
- Straight-Up Record: 14-12-0
- Over/Under Record: 12-14-0
- Average Line as Favorite: -4.56
- Average Line as Underdog: +4.94
- Average Score: 23.4 (Cincinnati) – 20.5 (Opponent)
Analysis:
Cincinnati performs well against B Grade teams, showing a positive point spread record and a slightly winning straight-up record. Their ability to cover spreads as both favorites and underdogs highlights their balanced performance against mid-tier opponents.
Key Games:
- Win vs. Buffalo Bills (2023-11-05): Cincinnati won 24-18 as 2-point favorites, demonstrating their ability to execute effectively against B Grade teams.
- Loss vs. Tennessee Titans (2023-10-01): Cincinnati failed to cover a 3-point spread, losing 27-3, highlighting occasional struggles against B Grade teams.
Performance Against C Grade Teams
Summary:
- Point Spread Record: 18-11-2
- Straight-Up Record: 14-15-1
- Over/Under Record: 15-14-1
- Average Line as Favorite: -4.57
- Average Line as Underdog: +4.63
- Average Score: 24.8 (Cincinnati) – 21.3 (Opponent)
Analysis:
Cincinnati's performance against C Grade teams is strong, with a winning point spread record but a slightly losing straight-up record. They often face modest spreads, which they manage to cover consistently.
Key Games:
- Win vs. Arizona Cardinals (2023-10-08): Cincinnati won 34-20, covering a 3-point spread, exemplifying their potential to dominate weaker opponents.
- Loss vs. Cleveland Browns (2021-09-19): Cincinnati lost 20-17 as 2.5-point underdogs, showing vulnerabilities even against lower-tier teams.
Ron's Summary:
The Cincinnati Bengals exhibit a strong performance against A Grade teams, with competitive play even when losing outright. Their balanced approach against B and C Grade teams further reflects their capacity to cover spreads consistently. Understanding these trends offers valuable insights for bettors and fans assessing Cincinnati's potential in upcoming games.
Cincinnati Bengals 2024 Schedule and Expectations
Regular Season
- Week 1 (Sun, Sep 8) – vs New England (C Grade)
- Analysis: Cincinnati should be slight favorites, around -8. Their performance against C Grade teams suggests a good chance to win and cover.
- Week 2 (Sun, Sep 15) – @ Kansas City (A Grade)
- Analysis: Facing a top opponent, Cincinnati will be underdogs, likely around +7. They have a history of competing well in these matchups.
- Week 3 (Mon, Sep 23) – vs Washington (B Grade)
- Analysis: Cincinnati will be slight favorites, possibly around -3, with a strong opportunity to secure a victory and cover.
- Week 4 (Sun, Sep 29) – @ Carolina (C Grade)
- Analysis: Cincinnati should be favorites, around -4, expected to win and cover given their track record against lower-tier opponents.
- Week 5 (Sun, Oct 6) – vs Baltimore (A Grade)
- Analysis: A challenging division game where Cincinnati might be underdogs, around +3. Their ability to cover will depend on executing effectively.
- Week 6 (Sun, Oct 13) – @ New York (B Grade)
- Analysis: Cincinnati could be slight underdogs, around +2.5. A competitive game is expected, with a chance to cover.
- Week 7 (Sun, Oct 20) – @ Cleveland (C Grade)
- Analysis: Cincinnati will likely be slight favorites, around -3, with a good chance to win and cover if they maintain focus.
- Week 8 (Sun, Oct 27) – vs Philadelphia (A Grade)
- Analysis: Cincinnati will be underdogs, possibly around +4. Their recent form against top teams suggests a potential to cover.
- Week 9 (Sun, Nov 3) – vs Las Vegas (B Grade)
- Analysis: Cincinnati should be favorites, around -3, expected to win and cover based on their performance against B Grade teams.
- Week 10 (Thu, Nov 7) – @ Baltimore (A Grade)
- Analysis: Another tough division game where Cincinnati will be underdogs, likely around +6. Covering will require disciplined play.
- Week 11 (Sun, Nov 17) – @ Los Angeles (B Grade)
- Analysis: Cincinnati might be slight favorites, around -2. They have the potential to win and cover with solid execution.
- Week 13 (Sun, Dec 1) – vs Pittsburgh (B Grade)
- Analysis: Cincinnati will be slight favorites, around -3, expected to secure a victory and cover against their divisional rival.
- Week 14 (Mon, Dec 9) – @ Dallas (B Grade)
- Analysis: A challenging road game where Cincinnati might be underdogs, around +4. Their performance will hinge on controlling the tempo.
- Week 15 (Sun, Dec 15) – @ Tennessee (B Grade)
- Analysis: Cincinnati could be slight underdogs, around +2.5, with a chance to cover if they execute well.
- Week 16 (Thu, Dec 19) – vs Cleveland (C Grade)
- Analysis: Cincinnati should be favorites, around -4, expected to win and cover if they maintain consistency.
- Week 17 (Sun, Dec 29) – vs Denver (C Grade)
- Analysis: Cincinnati will be favorites, possibly -3, with a strong likelihood of victory and covering the spread.
- Week 18 (Sun, Jan 5) – @ Pittsburgh (B Grade)
- Analysis: The final regular season game where Cincinnati might be slight underdogs, around +2. Their ability to cover will depend on executing effectively in a hostile environment.
This schedule provides Cincinnati with opportunities to demonstrate their growth and competitiveness across different levels of competition in the 2024 season. By comparing game-day lines and totals against historical averages, bettors can gain valuable insights into Cincinnati's likely performance.
