NHL Betting Insights:
The NHL season has seen a strong start for favorites, as observed through daily, weekly, and monthly tracking metrics:
- Moneyline Trends: Over the past month, favorites have dominated with a 69.9% success rate, marking a bullish trend that has maintained stability. However, as the season progresses, an interesting cycle emerges where, on specific days (like October 24 and 12), underdogs performed relatively well, suggesting possible value in selectively betting on certain underdogs.
- Over/Under Trends: The NHL's Over/Under market has shown neutral tendencies, with a 51.6% over rate, suggesting no strong advantage on either side. However, shorter cycles, such as the 1-day and 3-day windows, have shown bullish tendencies for the over at times, reaching as high as 69% on October 26. Bettors should watch these shorter trends for timing over plays.
- ATS Trends: Against the spread, favorites have only managed a 54.3% success rate, making ATS plays neutral overall. Despite the heavy success of favorites on the moneyline, their coverage rate has been less reliable, indicating that underdogs are often able to cover even in losses, creating opportunities for ATS dog bettors.
NBA Betting Insights:
The NBA has also leaned heavily towards favorites, with a consistent bullish trend across all cycles:
- Moneyline Trends: NBA favorites have an impressive 71% straight-up (SU) win rate over the past two months, staying bullish and making this one of the strongest starts in recent years. As a result, backing favorites has been profitable; however, bettors should still look for teams trending towards upsets for added value.
- Over/Under Trends: The over/under market in the NBA has leaned towards the neutral zone with a 56% rate favoring the over, indicating balanced action without a significant edge. Specific days, like October 23, saw a stronger over trend with an 80% success rate, hinting that monitoring game tempo and line movement closer to game time may uncover over opportunities.
- ATS Trends: ATS performance for favorites has been neutral with a 55% cover rate, suggesting a slight advantage but nothing robust. This neutrality means underdog cover rates are relatively strong as well, providing value for bettors looking at underdogs that can compete closely.
Conclusion:
This season’s early cycles across both leagues show that favorites are performing consistently in moneyline plays, while ATS and over/under markets remain more balanced. Bettors may want to leverage these insights by targeting moneyline favorites in the NHL and NBA where possible, while selectively exploring ATS underdog plays and closely watching short-term over/under trends for additional edges.
