Game Details
- Teams: Miami Heat (Road Favorite) vs. Toronto Raptors (Home Underdog)
- Date: Sunday, December 1, 2024
- Time: 6:00 PM ET
- Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Canada
Game Preview
The Miami Heat travel to Toronto for a Sunday evening showdown against the Raptors. Miami has been building momentum, winning 5 of their last 7 games, and aims to continue their success on the road. Toronto, on the other hand, is looking to bounce back after a tough stretch, including a 1-2 record over their last three outings. With Miami’s efficient road play and Toronto’s tendency to allow high-scoring games as a home underdog, this matchup promises plenty of action.
Odds Overview
- Point Spread: Miami -4.5 | Toronto +4.5
- Moneyline: Miami -182 | Toronto +162
- Over/Under (Total Points): 222
Situational Stats
Miami Heat:
- As Road Favorite: 3-1 W-L | PF: 112.75 | PA: 105.25
- Last 3 Games: 2-1 W-L | PF: 107.33 | PA: 103.67
- Last 7 Games: 5-2 W-L | PF: 112.14 | PA: 106.86
Toronto Raptors:
- As Home Underdog: 4-4 W-L | PF: 117.13 | PA: 119
- Last 3 Games: 1-2 W-L | PF: 110 | PA: 105.33
- Last 7 Games: 3-4 W-L | PF: 114.43 | PA: 112.57
Prediction Analysis
Spread:
Miami enters this matchup as a 4.5-point favorite, a role in which they’ve excelled on the road (3-1 record). Toronto has been competitive as a home underdog (4-4), but their high points allowed (119) presents a defensive challenge against Miami’s efficient offense as a road favorite (112.75 PF).
Given Miami’s recent defensive consistency (allowing 103.67 points per game over the last three) and Toronto’s struggles against stronger opponents, the Heat are well-positioned to cover the -4.5 spread.
Total (Over/Under):
The total is set at 222 points. While both teams have defensive lapses, the Sports Betting Index (SBI) highlights a bearish trend on Unders, suggesting a market correction toward higher-scoring games. With Toronto’s recent games averaging 114.43 PF and 112.57 PA over the last 7, and Miami’s balanced scoring, this matchup leans toward the Over.
Final Predictions
- Projected Score: Miami 117, Toronto 111
- Spread Prediction: Miami -4.5 (covers)
- Total Prediction: Over 222
Key Takeaways
- Miami’s strong situational stats as a road favorite and recent defensive performance make them a solid choice to cover the spread.
- The total points of 222 appear low given both teams' recent scoring trends, making the Over an attractive play.
