NLDS Game 1 Preview: NY Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Date: October 5, 2024
Time: 4:08 PM ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Odds:

• Mets +1.5 (+162)
• Phillies -1.5 (-178)
• Total: 7

The NLDS kicks off with Game 1 between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. Both teams are set to put their game 1 starters on the mound, with the Mets sending Kodai Senga and the Phillies countering with Zack Wheeler. This game promises to be a tight contest with two elite pitchers leading the charge in what could be a low-scoring affair.

New York Mets:

The Mets wrapped up their regular season with a 91-74 record, doing well on the road (45-39). Their recent performance has been inconsistent, going 5-5 in their last 10 games, while tending toward low-scoring contests with a 3-7 O/U record in that span. Kodai Senga will take the mound for the Mets, boasting a 1-0 record with a 4.00 ERA in his last three starts. Senga has shown great command and will be key in holding down a potent Phillies lineup.

Offensively, the Mets have struggled in recent games, managing just 3.5 runs per game in their last 10 contests. However, they pulled off a key win against the Brewers in their final series (4-2), showing resilience heading into the playoffs.

Philadelphia Phillies:

The Phillies enjoyed an excellent regular season, finishing 95-67 and dominating at home with a 54-27 record. Zack Wheeler has been their workhorse, posting a 5-2 record in his last seven starts, including a stellar 2.14 ERA. Wheeler’s ability to handle high-pressure games will be critical in setting the tone for the Phillies in this series opener.

The Phillies’ offense has been hot, averaging 5.1 runs per game in their last 10, but their pitching has been inconsistent, allowing 5.6 runs in the same span. The Phillies will need Wheeler to be sharp to keep the Mets' lineup from finding any rhythm early.

Key Trends:

• Mets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against the Phillies.
• Phillies are 4-6 SU in their last 10 games but have played exceptionally well at home.
• The total has gone under in 7 of the Mets' last 10 games, while the Phillies have leaned over in 7 of their last 10.

Betting Insights:

• C.O.W.: The Phillies have a 52.73% chance of winning Game 1, based on their strong home record and Wheeler’s dominance.
• C.O.G.O.: The chances of the game going over 7 runs sit at 50%, with both teams having fluctuated between high-scoring and low-scoring games recently.
• Value: The Mets at +1.5 with a moneyline of +162 present an appealing underdog option, particularly with Senga's solid recent form on the mound.

Prediction:

This should be a pitching duel, with both Senga and Wheeler capable of shutting down offenses. While the Phillies have the slight edge with their home-field advantage and Wheeler’s consistency, the Mets’ +1.5 on the run line offers value in what could be a close, low-scoring game.

Prediction: Phillies 4, Mets 3
Betting Tip: Mets +1.5, Under 7