Categories: MLB

MLB Team Rankings: Evaluating Recent Performance and Strength of Schedule

To rank the MLB teams based on their recent performance and the strength of their opponents, we can create a point system that considers the following factors:

  1. Win-Loss Record (Last 14 Games): Reward teams for wins and penalize for losses.
  2. Strength of Schedule (SOS): Reward teams more for winning against stronger opponents and penalize less for losses against strong opponents.
  3. Power Rating: Use power rating as a tiebreaker or additional factor to account for the overall strength of the team.

Point System

  • Win Points:
  • Win: +2 points
  • Loss: 0 points
  • SOS Adjustment:
  • For each win, add points equal to the SOS percentage (higher SOS, more points).
  • For each loss, subtract points equal to half of the SOS percentage (to minimize penalty for strong opponents).
  • Power Rating Bonus:
  • Multiply the team's Power Rating by 10 and add it to the total points (higher power ratings earn more points).

Calculation

Let's calculate the points for each team based on this system and rank them.

Example Calculation for Arizona

  • Wins: 10 wins × 2 points = 20 points
  • SOS Adjustment: (10 wins × 44.39) – (4 losses × 22.195) = 443.9 – 88.78 = 355.12 points
  • Power Rating Bonus: 0.58 × 10 = 5.8 points
  • Total Points: 20 + 355.12 + 5.8 = 380.92 points

Let's calculate and rank the rest of the teams:

TeamWinsLossesSOSPower RatingWin PointsSOS AdjustmentPower Rating BonusTotal Points
Arizona10444.390.5820355.125.8380.92
San Diego12245.920.6624481.366.6511.96
Minnesota9534.690.4918311.464.9334.36
San Francisco9548.470.5618434.375.6457.97
Los Angeles Angels8652.550.5516444.935.5466.43
Baltimore7759.690.5514468.985.5488.48
NY Mets8652.550.5516444.935.5466.43
NY Yankees8649.490.5316417.545.3438.84
Boston8648.470.5316411.365.3432.66
Cincinnati8652.550.5516444.935.5466.43
Oakland8646.430.5216397.935.2419.13
Cleveland8640.820.4916366.424.9387.32
Tampa Bay8650.510.5416427.275.4448.67
Toronto7751.530.5114447.225.1466.32
Milwaukee7745.920.4814386.324.8405.12
Kansas City7740.820.4514358.224.5376.72
Miami7750.000.5014435.005.0454.00
Los Angeles7756.120.5314474.495.3493.79
Atlanta6853.060.4812418.084.8434.88
St. Louis6845.410.4412354.714.4371.11
Chicago Cubs7751.530.5114447.225.1466.32
Seattle7737.760.4414324.444.4342.84
Houston6850.510.4712394.084.7410.78
Washington5962.760.4910438.424.9453.32
Texas6839.800.4112321.604.1337.70
Pittsburgh6857.140.5012411.425.0428.42
Detroit5956.120.4610384.184.6398.78
Philadelphia41056.120.428328.484.2340.68
Colorado6865.310.5412464.585.4481.98
Chicago White Sox11352.550.302180.483.0185.48

Ranked List

  1. San Diego Padres – 511.96 points
  2. Los Angeles Angels – 466.43 points
  3. NY Mets – 466.43 points
  4. Cincinnati Reds – 466.43 points
  5. Toronto Blue Jays – 466.32 points
  6. Tampa Bay Rays – 448.67 points
  7. Baltimore Orioles – 488.48 points
  8. Los Angeles Dodgers – 493.79 points
  9. Miami Marlins – 454.00 points
  10. Washington Nationals – 453.32 points
  11. San Francisco Giants – 457.97 points
  12. NY Yankees – 438.84 points
  13. Boston Red Sox – 432.66 points
  14. Colorado Rockies – 481.98 points
  15. Arizona Diamondbacks – 380.92 points
  16. Atlanta Braves – 434.88 points
  17. Houston Astros – 410.78 points
  18. Pittsburgh Pirates – 428.42 points
  19. Milwaukee Brewers – 405.12 points
  20. Oakland Athletics – 419.13 points
    21. Detroit Tigers – 398.78 points
  21. Kansas City Royals – 376.72 points
  22. St. Louis Cardinals – 371.11 points
  23. Texas Rangers – 337.70 points
  24. Minnesota Twins – 334.36 points
  25. Philadelphia Phillies – 340.68 points
  26. Seattle Mariners – 342.84 points
  27. Chicago Cubs – 466.32 points
  28. Chicago White Sox – 185.48 points

Conclusion

The ranking shows that the San Diego Padres are leading with their exceptional recent performance, having faced a moderately strong schedule. Meanwhile, the Chicago White Sox rank lowest due to their poor performance despite facing relatively tough opponents. The point system accounts for both win records and the difficulty of their schedule to provide a comprehensive ranking.

Ron Raymond

Ron Raymond is a well-known sports handicapper who runs ATS Stats and the Raymond REPORT. He has over 21 years of experience in the industry and provides expert analysis and predictions for various sports, including football, baseball, hockey, and basketball.

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