As the baseball world turns its eyes towards the historic Fenway Park, an enticing matchup is shaping up between the Miami Marlins and the Boston Red Sox. The Marlins, with a strong 47-34 season record, will be taking on the Red Sox, who currently stand at 40-41. With Jesus Luzardo (6-5 – 3.77 ERA) on the mound for the Marlins and Brayan Bellow (5-4 – 3.27 ERA), it's time to delve into the numbers for betting prospects on this game.
Offensively, the Red Sox boast a stronger average with 4.9 runs per game in all games compared to the Marlins' 4.1. This advantage is even more pronounced in home games, where the Red Sox have a commanding average of 5.66 runs, dwarfing the Marlins' road average of 4.3. This could prove to be a crucial factor, especially considering that the game is being played at Fenway Park.
However, the Marlins have had the upper hand in recent form. They are 3-0 in their last three games with an impressive average of 6 runs per game. On the contrary, the Red Sox have struggled, going 0-3 with a mere average of 1.33 runs. Recent form is a crucial factor in baseball, and the Marlins seem to have momentum on their side.
The Marlins' pitching has also been quite impressive recently. They've allowed an average of only 1 run per game in their last three, which could spell trouble for the Red Sox's batting lineup that's been underperforming recently. On the other hand, the Red Sox's defense has struggled, with an average of 6.67 runs allowed in the last three games.
One intriguing aspect is the over/under listed at 9.0 for this game. Given the Marlins' recent stellar pitching form and the Red Sox's struggles on offense, bettors leaning towards the under might find some value here.
In situational stats, both the Marlins and Red Sox have shown strength when playing the 3rd game of a series as the away and home team respectively. The Marlins have a record of 9-2, while the Red Sox stand at 8-3 for the season. This could suggest a tight, competitive game is in store.
Therefore, while the Red Sox have the home-field advantage and a stronger season offensive record, the Marlins' recent form might just tilt the scales in their favor. With Luzardo pitching and their bats swinging hot, they could potentially pull off an upset at Fenway Park. However, as always, the unpredictability of baseball means anything can happen. The only certainty is an exciting game ahead. Game Time: 19:10:00, June 28, 2023.
ATS Forecast: Miami 4.7 Boston 4.24
