When it comes to betting on baseball, understanding the performance of favorites based on their recent streaks can offer valuable insights. Let's dive into the data and see where the value lies, considering both winning and losing streaks.
Favorites Coming off a Winning Streak
1 Game Winning Streak:
- Record: 180-129 SU (58.3%)
- Over/Under/Push: 134-161-14
2 Game Winning Streak:
- Record: 91-72 SU (55.8%)
- Over/Under/Push: 80-77-6
3 Game Winning Streak:
- Record: 49-29 SU (62.8%)
- Over/Under/Push: 33-40-5
4 Game Winning Streak:
- Record: 24-26 SU (48.0%)
- Over/Under/Push: 29-19-2
5 or More Game Winning Streak:
- Record: 15-5 SU (75.0%)
- Over/Under/Push: 7-12-1
Favorites Coming off a Losing Streak
1 Game Losing Streak:
- Record: 188-109 SU (63.3%)
- Over/Under/Push: 134-156-7
2 Game Losing Streak:
- Record: 76-48 SU (61.3%)
- Over/Under/Push: 64-56-4
3 Game Losing Streak:
- Record: 34-27 SU (55.7%)
- Over/Under/Push: 27-32-2
4 Game Losing Streak:
- Record: 13-19 SU (40.6%)
- Over/Under/Push: 16-15-1
5 or More Game Losing Streak:
- Record: 12-5 SU (70.6%)
- Over/Under/Push: 7-10-0
Analysis and Insights
Winning Streaks:
- 1-2 Game Winning Streaks: The data shows that favorites with a 1 or 2 game winning streak perform relatively well in terms of straight-up (SU) wins but not significantly better than their counterparts coming off a losing streak.
- 3+ Game Winning Streaks: As the winning streak increases, favorites tend to have a higher win rate. However, the sample sizes get smaller, particularly for streaks of 4 games or more, making it harder to generalize.
Losing Streaks:
- 1 Game Losing Streak: Favorites coming off a single loss have a strong record (188-109 SU), suggesting that these teams are likely to bounce back.
- 2+ Game Losing Streaks: While favorites coming off longer losing streaks (2+ games) still have a positive record, their performance diminishes as the streak lengthens. However, the winning percentages are comparable to those of teams on short winning streaks.
Where is the Value?
- Short Winning Streaks (1-2 games): Betting on favorites with a short winning streak (1-2 games) can be valuable, given their solid SU records and the likelihood of maintaining momentum.
- Short Losing Streaks (1 game): There is notable value in betting on favorites coming off a single loss, as these teams tend to rebound effectively, showcasing a strong 188-109 SU record (63.3%).
- Caution with Long Streaks: Both long winning and losing streaks show diminishing returns and smaller sample sizes, suggesting higher variability and risk.
Totals Conclusion
The data suggests that there is a noticeable trend towards the under in several scenarios:
- Favorites coming off a 3 game winning streak (57.7% under).
- Favorites coming off a 5 or more game winning streak (60.0% under).
- Favorites coming off a 3 game losing streak (54.2% under).
- Favorites coming off a 5 or more game losing streak (58.8% under).
On the flip side, there is a significant edge towards the over for favorites coming off a 4 game winning streak (59.2%).
Who Should Bettors Trust More?
Overall, bettors might find more consistent value in betting on favorites coming off a single loss due to their strong rebound tendencies. Favorites on short winning streaks also offer good opportunities but might not outperform those on a rebound from a single loss. The key is to focus on the context and other influencing factors like matchups, player availability, and recent performance trends.
Visual Summary
To help you understand and visualize this data better, here’s a summary in table format:
| Streak Type | Win-Loss Record | Winning Percentage | Over/Under/Push |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Game Winning Streak | 180-129 | 58.3% | 134-161-14 |
| 2 Game Winning Streak | 91-72 | 55.8% | 80-77-6 |
| 3 Game Winning Streak | 49-29 | 62.8% | 33-40-5 |
| 4 Game Winning Streak | 24-26 | 48.0% | 29-19-2 |
| 5+ Game Winning Streak | 15-5 | 75.0% | 7-12-1 |
| 1 Game Losing Streak | 188-109 | 63.3% | 134-156-7 |
| 2 Game Losing Streak | 76-48 | 61.3% | 64-56-4 |
| 3 Game Losing Streak | 34-27 | 55.7% | 27-32-2 |
| 4 Game Losing Streak | 13-19 | 40.6% | 16-15-1 |
| 5+ Game Losing Streak | 12-5 | 70.6% | 7-10-0 |
