CFL Western Division Semifinal Preview: British Columbia Lions at Saskatchewan Roughriders

• Date: Sunday, November 3, 2024
• Kickoff: 6:30 PM ET
• Location: Mosaic Stadium, Regina
• Line: Saskatchewan -3.5, O/U 50.5
• Moneyline: British Columbia +146, Saskatchewan -176

Matchup Overview

The British Columbia Lions and Saskatchewan Roughriders square off in a much-anticipated Western Division semifinal at Mosaic Stadium. Saskatchewan enters as the 3.5-point favorite after a solid regular season, particularly at home, where they posted a 5-4 SU record. The Roughriders hold a clear edge over the Lions in head-to-head matchups this season, having won the last meeting 39-8, a game in which their defense stifled the BC offense. However, with both teams ending the season at 9-9 SU, this contest remains evenly matched.

Team Trends

• British Columbia Lions: BC struggled on the road this season with a 3-6 SU and ATS record, a trend they’ll need to overcome in hostile Regina. Offensively, they averaged 23.22 points per game away from home, yet they’ve had issues defensively, allowing 29.44 points to their opponents on the road. The Lions enter the game with a mix of recent outcomes, having gone 2-3 SU and 1-4 O/U in their last five games. However, their most recent 27-3 victory over Montreal may be a confidence booster.
• Saskatchewan Roughriders: The Roughriders have been strong at Mosaic Stadium, especially as home favorites, with a balanced offense that averages 26.56 points at home. Saskatchewan’s defense will be crucial here, as they’ve allowed just 24.11 points per game at home this season, often finding success in holding opponents below their average. Saskatchewan heads into this game on a 4-1 SU streak over their last five games, though their recent 27-12 loss to Calgary shows vulnerability under pressure.

Key Stats and Betting Insights

• Chances of Winning (C.O.W.): Saskatchewan holds a clear edge here, with a 57.14% C.O.W. versus BC’s 33.33%, reinforcing their home advantage.
• Chances of Covering (C.O.C.): Although Saskatchewan is the stronger team, BC’s recent performance raises their chances of covering, as Saskatchewan’s C.O.C. sits at 36%, indicating potential for BC to cover the spread.
• Chances of Game Going Over (C.O.G.O.): Both teams carry a C.O.G.O. of 69%, which aligns with the season averages and recent trends suggesting a potential high-scoring game, with both offenses looking to start strong.

Player Matchups and Strategy

This semifinal clash will feature two quarterbacks with distinct styles and skills. For Saskatchewan, Trevor Harris leads the offense with experience and poise. Backup Shea Patterson brings versatility and mobility, while third-string Jack Coan may be utilized for gadget plays if needed. Harris will aim to connect with his reliable slot backs, particularly Samuel Emilus and Kian Schaffer-Baker, who have been instrumental in Saskatchewan’s passing game, providing security in the intermediate zones. If A.J. Ouellette (RB) can establish a ground presence early, he’ll help balance Saskatchewan’s attack and keep BC’s defense guessing.

Saskatchewan’s Receiving Corps: Saskatchewan’s wide receiver options, including KeeSean Johnson and Dhel Duncan-Busby, will be crucial in stretching the field. Mario Alford, a key slot back and special teams player, has game-breaking potential on both offense and as a returner. Look for Saskatchewan to utilize Alford’s speed to gain field position, while fullback Albert Awachie provides crucial blocking in both the running and passing game.

On the BC Lions’ side, Vernon Adams Jr. has been a dual-threat powerhouse, using his arm and legs to challenge defenses. If William Stanback (RB, probable) is active, he’ll be an asset in helping BC maintain control over the clock and capitalize on Saskatchewan’s defensive gaps. Nathan Rourke, Adams’s backup, provides a quality second option at quarterback, especially in designed runs or play-action scenarios.

BC Lions’ Receivers: The Lions’ wide receiver core is packed with playmakers, led by Alexander Hollins and Stanley Berryhill III. These two will challenge Saskatchewan’s secondary deep and across the middle, while slot backs Justin McInnis and Jevon Cottoy (probable) provide Adams with reliable intermediate targets. If Adams connects consistently with Keon Hatcher, Saskatchewan’s secondary will have a long night, as Hatcher has the ability to turn short receptions into significant gains. On special teams, Terry Williams is a returner to watch, as his speed and agility could flip the field at crucial moments.

Overall Strategy

For Saskatchewan, establishing the ground game early with A.J. Ouellette will allow Harris to capitalize on play-action passes to his slot backs and tight formations with Samuel Emilus and Kian Schaffer-Baker. Special teams weapon Mario Alford could provide game-changing field position, making each possession count. On the other hand, BC will look to spread Saskatchewan’s defense with Adams’s dual-threat abilities, relying on an aggressive air attack to Alexander Hollins and Stanley Berryhill III.

Predicted Edge and Outcome

Given Saskatchewan’s strength at home and BC’s struggles on the road, the Roughriders hold a slight edge. However, the Lions’ ability to pull off surprises, especially coming off a big win over Montreal, could make this a closer game than expected. If both offenses perform well, the total could push over 50.5, though Saskatchewan’s recent defensive trend favors a low-scoring contest.

Expect a hard-fought semifinal, where Saskatchewan’s home-field advantage and solid defensive play might be enough to clinch the win, though BC could cover within the spread.