As we look ahead to Week 16 of the CFL season, we delve into the Raymond Report data and some interesting trends from the 80% Club to help guide your betting strategy. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the upcoming games:
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Toronto Argonauts
- Date: September 20, 2024
- Time: 19:00
- Stadium: BMO Field
- Odds: Toronto Argonauts -6.5, O/U: 53.5
Hamilton Tiger-Cats Overview
- Predicted Score: 21.83
- Current Form: The Tiger-Cats enter this game with momentum, holding a 2-game SU win streak and a 3-game ATS win streak. They are 4-9 SU for the season but have been leaning towards the over with a 9-4 O/U record.
- Key Insight: Their C.O.W. (Chance of Winning) stands at 27.27%, indicating a tough matchup ahead. With a neutral VI (Value Index) of 2.8, they might have some value as underdogs, particularly against the spread.
Toronto Argonauts Overview
- Predicted Score: 27.98
- Current Form: The Argonauts have been solid at home, boasting a 7-6 SU record and a strong history of performance against Eastern Conference opponents.
- 80% Club Trend: Toronto is an impressive 13-1 SU when playing as the home team over the last two years, a 92.86% winning rate. Additionally, they are 17-3 SU against Eastern Conference opponents as the home team in the last five years, an 85% win rate.
- Key Insight: With a C.O.W. of 69.57% and their dominance at home, Toronto is the clear favorite here. However, the VI of -6.61 suggests they might be overvalued, so tread carefully if considering the spread.
Betting Outlook
- Raymond Report Prediction: Toronto is favored to win, and their home dominance makes them a strong candidate for a straight-up (SU) play. However, given Hamilton's recent ATS success, they could provide value against the spread.
Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Calgary Stampeders
- Date: September 20, 2024
- Time: 21:30
- Stadium: McMahon Stadium
- Odds: Saskatchewan Roughriders -2.5, O/U: 51
Saskatchewan Roughriders Overview
- Predicted Score: 26.7
- Current Form: The Roughriders are in a slump, on a 4-game SU losing streak, and are 5-7 SU for the season. Despite this, they have a C.O.W. of 60.8%, making them slight favorites.
- 80% Club Trend: Historically, the Roughriders are 12-2 SU when playing as a 0 to 3.0 away favorite with a total of 51.00 since 1996, an 85.71% win rate.
- Key Insight: Despite their recent struggles, their historical strength in this spot suggests they could bounce back.
Calgary Stampeders Overview
- Predicted Score: 23.45
- Current Form: Calgary is also in a downward trend, with 4 consecutive SU losses and an 0-5 ATS record in their last five games. However, they have a strong historical home performance.
- 80% Club Trend: The Stampeders are 20-3 SU when playing at home in September over the last 10 years, an 86.96% win rate. They are also 28-7 SU when playing at home after a non-conference game in the last 10 years, an 80% win rate.
- Key Insight: Despite their current bearish cycle, Calgary's strong historical performance in September makes them a compelling pick.
Betting Outlook
- Raymond Report Prediction: This matchup is tricky, with both teams struggling recently. Saskatchewan's strong record as a narrow favorite and Calgary's historical September performance suggest this could be closer than the line indicates.
Montreal Alouettes vs. Ottawa RedBlacks
- Date: September 21, 2024
- Time: 15:00
- Stadium: TD Place at Lansdowne Park
- Odds: Montreal Alouettes -2.5, O/U: 49.5
Montreal Alouettes Overview
- Predicted Score: 26.63
- Current Form: Despite losing their last game, the Alouettes are strong at 10-2 SU. Their C.O.W. is 66.67%, making them the favorite here.
- 80% Club Trend: Montreal has been very successful as a small road favorite, going 9-1 SU when playing as a 0 to 3.0 away favorite with a total of 49.50 since 1996, a 90% win rate.
- Key Insight: Given their historical success in this spot and their strong season performance, Montreal looks like a solid pick.
Ottawa RedBlacks Overview
- Predicted Score: 20.94
- Current Form: Ottawa is 8-4 SU this season but has been inconsistent lately. They have been trending towards the over, with a 4-0-1 O/U in their last five games.
- Key Insight: Ottawa's neutral cycle and recent trends towards the over could make the total an interesting play in this matchup.
Betting Outlook
- Raymond Report Prediction: Montreal is favored to win and given their historical strength as a small road favorite, they seem to have the edge. The over could also be in play given Ottawa’s recent trends.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Edmonton Elks
- Date: September 21, 2024
- Time: 19:00
- Stadium: Commonwealth Stadium
- Odds: Winnipeg Blue Bombers -2, O/U: 49.5
Winnipeg Blue Bombers Overview
- Predicted Score: 26.48
- Current Form: The Blue Bombers are red-hot with a 5-game SU win streak. They are also 7-6 SU for the season with a bullish cycle.
- 80% Club Trend: The Blue Bombers are 13-3 SU when playing as an away team versus a Western Conference opponent over the last 3 years, an 81.25% win rate. Additionally, the over is 9-1-0 for Winnipeg when playing as an away team coming off a home win as a favorite in the last two years (90%).
- Key Insight: Their bullish trend and strong historical performance make them a strong candidate for both the SU and over.
Edmonton Elks Overview
- Predicted Score: 23.26
- Current Form: The Elks have been impressive recently, winning 2 straight SU and 6 straight ATS. They are 5-8 SU for the season but are in a neutral cycle.
- Key Insight: Edmonton’s strong recent performance against the spread makes them an interesting play, but Winnipeg's bullish cycle and historical success give them the edge.
Betting Outlook
- Raymond Report Prediction: Winnipeg is favored to extend their win streak, and with their strong historical performance, they look like a solid pick. Given the trends, the over could also be worth considering.
Final Thoughts
Week 16 features some intriguing matchups with teams in different cycles. The 80% Club trends highlight strong historical patterns that could provide an edge in your betting strategy. Whether backing a home favorite like Toronto or looking for value in an over trend with Winnipeg, the Raymond Report offers valuable insights to guide your picks.