CFL Eastern Division Preview: Ottawa Redblacks (52.5) at Toronto Argonauts (-6.5)

The Ottawa Redblacks travel back to BMO Field to take on the Toronto Argonauts this Saturday in a pivotal Eastern Division clash. With playoff hopes on the line, Toronto aims to defend their impressive 7-2 home record, while Ottawa, coming off a close win over Hamilton, looks to disrupt Toronto's home-field advantage. The Argos hold a 6.5-point edge, with the over/under set at 52.5, promising a matchup that could go down to the wire as both teams fight for an upper hand in the division.

• Date: Saturday, November 2, 2024
• Kickoff: 3:00 PM ET
• Location: BMO Field, Toronto
• Line: Toronto -6.5, O/U 52.5
• Moneyline: Ottawa +220, Toronto -275

Matchup Overview

The Ottawa Redblacks head to BMO Field to face the Toronto Argonauts, who hold the home-field advantage and a 7-1-1 season record on their turf. Both teams have shown contrasting strengths throughout the season: Ottawa has struggled on the road (2-7 SU), while Toronto has been a tough team to beat at home (7-2 SU). Recent performances highlight that Toronto’s last game ended in a close loss against Edmonton (30-31), while Ottawa enters the game off a 31-37 victory over Hamilton.

Team Trends

• Ottawa Redblacks: The Redblacks have had difficulties covering the spread recently, going 1-4 ATS in their last five, and are 2-3 O/U over that span. The offense has struggled in away games, averaging only 21.89 points, while their defense has allowed an average of 32.89 on the road.
• Toronto Argonauts: Toronto has covered more consistently at home, with a 5-4 ATS record. They are 4-1 O/U in their last five games, showing a tendency toward high-scoring contests. At home, they average 30.56 points and allow 27.33, suggesting their defensive vulnerabilities could lead to another high-scoring game.

Key Statistics

• Chances of Winning (C.O.W.): Toronto at 48.28% has a slight edge over Ottawa’s 45.16%, emphasizing Toronto's home advantage.
• Chances of Covering (C.O.C.): Ottawa is more favorable at 58%, slightly tipping the scale for bettors considering the +6.5 line.
• Chances of Game Going Over (C.O.G.O.): Both teams stand at 38%, indicating mixed trends for the total of 52.5. Toronto’s recent high-scoring games lean towards the over, but Ottawa’s inconsistent scoring may temper expectations.

Predicted Edge and Outcome

The Argonauts’ strong home record and Ottawa’s road woes give Toronto a clear edge. However, Ottawa’s +6.5 spread has merit given Toronto’s recent struggles to dominate. With both teams leaning towards the over, expect the total to have potential if both offenses come out strong.

Make sure to check our Ron Raymond's premium picks page for his pick on Saturday's game between the Redblacks and Arogs.