Why This Matters:
For college football enthusiasts and bettors, understanding specific situational trends can offer a competitive edge. This detailed analysis focuses on the Alabama Crimson Tide’s performance as road favorites following a win over the past five years.
Performance Breakdown:
- Straight Up (SU): 16-4
- Against the Spread (ATS): 9-11-0
- Over/Under (O/U): 16-4-0 for the OVER
Key Trends:
- Strong SU Performance: Alabama’s 16-4 SU record highlights their ability to win on the road after a win.
- Inconsistent ATS Performance: With a 9-11-0 ATS record, Alabama has struggled to consistently cover the spread in these scenarios.
- High-Scoring Games: The 16-4-0 record for the OVER indicates a tendency towards high-scoring matchups.
Detailed Game Analysis:
| Date | Opponent | Line | Total | HS | RS | ATS Winner | SU Winner | O/U | Surface |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-14 | South Carolina | -26.0 | 59.0 | 23 | 47 | S. Carolina | Alabama | Over | Grass |
| 2019-10-12 | Texas A&M | -17.0 | 61.5 | 28 | 47 | Alabama | Alabama | Over | Artificial |
| 2019-11-30 | Auburn | -3.5 | 50.0 | 48 | 45 | Auburn | Auburn | Over | Grass |
| 2020-10-10 | Mississippi | -24.0 | 73.0 | 48 | 63 | Mississippi | Alabama | Over | Grass |
| 2020-10-24 | Tennessee | -21.0 | 66.0 | 17 | 48 | Alabama | Alabama | Under | Grass |
| 2020-12-05 | LSU | -28.5 | 64.0 | 17 | 55 | Alabama | Alabama | Over | Grass |
| 2020-12-12 | Arkansas | -23.5 | 69.5 | 3 | 52 | Alabama | Alabama | Under | Grass |
| 2020-12-19 | Florida | -16.0 | 73.5 | 46 | 52 | Florida | Alabama | Over | Grass |
| 2021-09-18 | Florida | -15.5 | 58.5 | 29 | 31 | Florida | Alabama | Over | Grass |
| 2021-10-09 | Texas A&M | -19.0 | 50.5 | 41 | 38 | Texas A&M | Texas A&M | Over | Artificial |
| 2021-11-27 | Auburn | -20.0 | 56.5 | 22 | 24 | Auburn | Alabama | Under | Grass |
| 2022-09-10 | Texas | -21.0 | 64.0 | 19 | 20 | Texas | Alabama | Under | Artificial |
| 2022-10-01 | Arkansas | -17.0 | 61.5 | 26 | 49 | Alabama | Alabama | Over | Grass |
| 2022-10-15 | Tennessee | -9.0 | 67.5 | 52 | 49 | Tennessee | Tennessee | Over | Grass |
| 2022-11-05 | LSU | -13.0 | 56.5 | 32 | 31 | LSU | LSU | Over | Grass |
| 2022-12-31 | Kansas State | -7.5 | 58.5 | 20 | 45 | Alabama | Alabama | Over | Artificial |
| 2023-09-30 | Mississippi State | -16.5 | 45.5 | 17 | 40 | Alabama | Alabama | Over | Grass |
| 2023-10-07 | Texas A&M | -2.5 | 45.5 | 20 | 26 | Alabama | Alabama | Over | Artificial |
| 2023-11-11 | Kentucky | -11.0 | 47.0 | 21 | 49 | Alabama | Alabama | Over | Grass |
| 2023-11-25 | Auburn | -13.5 | 47.5 | 24 | 27 | Auburn | Alabama | Over | Grass |
Betting Insights:
- Focus on Totals: Given the strong trend towards the OVER, betting on the total points might offer better value than the spread.
- Selective ATS Bets: Consider the context of each game and opponent when betting ATS, as Alabama has shown inconsistencies in covering the spread.
Conclusion:
Understanding Alabama’s performance as road favorites after a win provides valuable insights for betting strategies. Focus on the OVER and be selective with ATS bets to capitalize on these trends.
