Finding CFB Betting Edges: Kentucky Wildcats Point Spread and Totals Analysis

The Kentucky Wildcats have had a varied performance in recent seasons, making it essential to find specific trends and patterns that could offer betting edges. Let's dive into the data from the past three years to uncover valuable insights for the upcoming season.

Overall Records (Last 3 Years):

• ATS (Against the Spread): 13-14-1
• SU (Straight Up): 23-15
• O/U (Over/Under): 17-21

Home vs. Road Performance

Home Games:

Kentucky has shown a mixed performance at home, covering the spread in some high-margin wins but also failing in close games. For example, they covered as a 31-point favorite against UL Monroe in 2021 but failed to cover a 14.5-point spread against Miami Ohio in 2022.

Road Games:

Kentucky has had a few notable covers on the road, such as against Florida in 2022, where they were 5.5-point underdogs and won outright. However, their road performance can be erratic, with significant losses like the game against Georgia in 2023, where they failed to cover a 14.5-point spread.

Performance Against Strong Opponents

Kentucky tends to struggle against top-tier teams:

• Georgia: Kentucky lost ATS and SU in both 2021 (+22.0) and 2023 (+14.5), with these games often going Over the total.
• Tennessee: Kentucky lost ATS and SU in 2021 (+1.0) and 2023 (+4.0), with high-scoring outcomes leading to Overs.
• Alabama: Kentucky lost ATS and SU in 2023 (+11.0), and the game went Over the total.

Performance Against Weaker Opponents

Kentucky performs better ATS against weaker teams:

• Covered large spreads against teams like UL Monroe (-31.0) and Youngstown State (-30.5).
• Games against weaker opponents often go Under, suggesting strong defensive performances when they are heavily favored.

Totals Trends

• High Totals: Kentucky games with higher total lines (above 50 points) often go Over. This trend is evident in matchups against Missouri and Louisville.
• Low Totals: Games with lower total lines (below 50 points) often go Under, such as matches against Iowa and Mississippi State.

Betting Edges/Values:

1. Fade Kentucky Against Strong Teams: Betting against Kentucky when they play strong teams (like Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama) seems profitable both ATS and on the Over. These teams tend to outperform Kentucky, leading to higher-scoring games.
2. Bet Kentucky Against Weaker Teams: Kentucky performs well ATS against weaker opponents and often in games with lower totals. Betting on Kentucky to cover in these scenarios can be profitable.
3. Totals Strategy:

• Over in High Total Games: When the total is set high (above 50 points), Kentucky games often go Over, especially when playing against teams with high offensive capabilities.
• Under in Low Total Games: When the total is set low (below 50 points), betting the Under can be valuable, as Kentucky’s defense tends to hold up better in these games.

Conclusion

By focusing on these patterns, sports bettors can potentially find value in betting on or against the Kentucky Wildcats this season, depending on the strength of their opponents and the totals set by bookmakers. This strategic approach can provide an edge and improve betting success.