As we enter Week 6 of the college football season, let's take a look at how the betting market has shaped up over the first five weeks, using data from the Raymond Report Sports Betting Index (SBI). This market analysis will help bettors understand the trends heading into Week 6 and how favorites, underdogs, and totals have performed thus far.
Favorites Dominating the Market
Through the first five weeks, favorites have been largely dominant, posting a 64.4% winning percentage straight-up (SU) on the season, leading to a BULLISH SBI rating. This shows that the market has been favoring stronger teams, and bettors who consistently backed favorites have been rewarded. Here's a breakdown of the favorite/underdog split:
- Week 1: 85.1% favorites (BULLISH)
- Week 2: 66% favorites (BULLISH)
- Week 3: 77.6% favorites (BULLISH)
- Week 4: 73.7% favorites (BULLISH)
- Week 5: 73.1% favorites (BULLISH)
This consistent bullish trend means that in most cases, the public and sharp money have heavily backed favorites, and this has worked out well so far. Week 6 may see some market correction or a continuation of this dominance.
Totals Market Showing Neutrality
When it comes to the over/under (OU) market, the season has been more balanced. The YTD SBI rating for the over/under sits at NEUTRAL, with 42.1% of games going over and 50.8% under. However, the weekly breakdown shows some fluctuations:
- Week 1: 43.9% Over / 56.1% Under (NEUTRAL)
- Week 2: 54.1% Over / 45.9% Under (NEUTRAL)
- Week 3: 64.5% Over / 35.5% Under (BULLISH on Overs)
- Week 4: 57.1% Over / 42.9% Under (NEUTRAL)
- Week 5: 50% Over / 50% Under (NEUTRAL)
This suggests that the totals market has been unpredictable, with the over hitting more frequently in Week 3 and Week 4, but balancing out by Week 5. Bettors should remain cautious about betting on totals, as no clear long-term trend has emerged in the first five weeks.
ATS Performance Trends
Against the spread (ATS), the market has fluctuated more compared to SU betting:
- Week 1: 46.3% Favorites / 50.7% Dogs (NEUTRAL)
- Week 2: 32% Favorites / 67% Dogs (BEARISH on Favorites)
- Week 3: 50.6% Favorites / 48.2% Dogs (NEUTRAL)
- Week 4: 57.9% Favorites / 40.4% Dogs (BULLISH on Favorites)
- Week 5: 46.2% Favorites / 50% Dogs (NEUTRAL)
Overall, the ATS market has been less predictable, with a BEARISH overall SBI rating for favorites and BEARISH sentiment on the YTD data for underdogs covering more frequently at 50.9%. However, in Week 4, we saw a strong showing from favorites ATS, suggesting the market may have been adjusting to earlier mispricing.
What to Expect in Week 6?
As we move into Week 6, bettors are entering a market that has shown a consistent favoring of favorites, with some volatility in totals and ATS outcomes. Given the BULLISH trend for favorites and the NEUTRAL state of the totals market, expect betting lines to reflect this, with potentially shorter spreads on high-profile teams.
However, the SBI data suggests caution. Underdogs have shown resilience ATS, especially in weeks where favorites are dominant SU. This means there could be value in carefully analyzing matchups where the underdog is expected to cover but not win outright. Additionally, totals remain a bit unpredictable, so it’s essential to factor in situational analysis rather than relying purely on trends.
For bettors looking ahead to Week 6, it’s crucial to stay aware of how these market patterns may evolve, especially with a potential market correction in ATS and totals looming.
