The art of sports handicapping often extends beyond the realm of simply backing winners. For experts like Ron Raymond, finding teams that consistently perform against the spread (ATS) can be equally profitable. As the 2023 College Football season commenced, Raymond identified certain ‘under the radar' teams. These were squads that had a losing straight-up (SU) record the previous year, but a winning ATS record. Let’s delve into how these teams have fared so far.
Key Insights:
- Overachievers: Out of the 15 teams tracked, UNLV and Washington State have risen the most against the odds. Both hold a perfect ATS record at 4-0, with UNLV even enjoying a 3-1 SU record. Washington State is unbeaten SU at 4-0.
- Consistent Performers: Both Kansas and Missouri are undefeated SU at 4-0, while holding an ATS of 3-1. These teams have not only been winning but also beating the spread quite consistently.
- The Underdogs: Teams like Georgia Tech, Connecticut, Southern Mississippi, and Western Michigan have found the going tough, both in terms of SU and ATS. Connecticut, in particular, hasn’t registered a win in 4 attempts.
- Contradictory Paths: Interestingly, some teams like Rice have an even SU record at 2-2 but have excelled ATS at 3-1. This suggests that while they might not always be winning, they are performing better than what the oddsmakers expect.
- The Enigma of Hawaii: Hawaii is a unique case as they have played an extra game, giving them a 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS record. This is a team that's tough to predict, sometimes surpassing expectations and sometimes falling just a tad short.
- Aggregate Performance: Collectively, the 15 teams have a combined SU of 31-27 and an ATS of 32-25-1. This implies that, more often than not, these teams are either winning or performing better than anticipated. The slight edge in ATS over SU reinforces the initial premise: these teams might not always win, but they often outdo the spread.
| # | Team | SU | ATS | Opponent | Spread | Moneyline | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia Tech | 2-2 | 2-2-0 | at Wake Forest | +3.5 | 154 | 30-16 |
| 2 | Kansas | 4-0 | 3-1-0 | BYU | -8.5 | -333 | 38-27 |
| 3 | Missouri | 4-0 | 3-1-0 | Memphis | -6.0 | -230 | 34-27 |
| 4 | Connecticut | 0-4 | 1-3-0 | Duke | +21.5 | 950 | 7-41 |
| 5 | Southern Mississippi | 1-3 | 1-3-0 | at Arkansas State | -7 | -265 | 37-44 |
| 6 | Rice | 2-2 | 3-1-0 | at South Florida | -2.5 | -135 | 29-42 |
| 7 | Army | 2-2 | 3-1-0 | at Syracuse | +13.5 | 425 | 16-29 |
| 8 | Navy | 1-2 | 1-2-0 | Bye | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9 | Temple | 2-2 | 1-3-0 | Miami | +23.5 | 1200 | 7-41 |
| 10 | Akron | 1-3 | 2-2-0 | at Indiana | +16.5 | 600 | 27-29 |
| 11 | Western Michigan | 1-3 | 1-3-0 | at Toledo | +21 | 900 | 31-49 |
| 12 | UNLV | 3-1 | 4-0-0 | at UTEP | -2.5 | -130 | 45-28 |
| 13 | California | 2-2 | 2-2-0 | at Washington | +21.0 | 750 | 32-59 |
| 14 | Washington State | 4-0 | 3-1-0 | Oregon State | +3 | 124 | 38-35 |
| 15 | Hawaii | 2-3 | 3-2-0 | New Mexico State | -3 | -155 | 20-17 |
Betting Implications:
For bettors, these insights are invaluable. The idea isn't always to back the outright winners but to find value. Teams like UNLV and Rice, for instance, have shown that they can be relied upon to either win or at least challenge the spread consistently.
However, as always, past performance is not always indicative of future results. It's crucial to keep abreast of team news, form, and other influencing factors when placing bets.
Lastly, it's worth noting that while these “under the radar” teams have proven their mettle against the spread, there's a reason they remain under the radar. Bettors must tread carefully and assess risks against potential rewards.
In conclusion, Ron Raymond's approach to identifying undervalued teams based on their ATS performance, regardless of their SU record from the previous year, provides a different and potentially lucrative perspective for those in the sports betting arena. As the season progresses, it will be interesting to see how these teams continue to perform against the expectations set by the oddsmakers.
