Understanding the “Law of Average” in Betting
The Law of Average (L.O.A.) is a key concept in sports betting that helps identify overbought and oversold markets. This strategy, used in the Raymond Report, is built on the 50/50 principle. Essentially, when one team has been winning or covering consistently, while another has been struggling, the Law of Average suggests that a market correction is likely.
When applied correctly, this theory can help bettors recognize when a team is due for a bounce-back performance or a regression, making it an effective tool in predicting outcomes against the spread (ATS) or on totals (O/U). Let’s apply the Law of Average to tonight’s Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks game.
Game Breakdown: Miami Heat (-1.5) vs. Dallas Mavericks (+1.5) – O/U 221
Game Time: February 13, 2025 – 8:30 PM EST
Recent Performance & Trends:
- Miami Heat: 4-6 SU | 4-6 ATS | 4-6 O/U (Last 10 Games)
- Dallas Mavericks: 5-5 SU | 6-3-1 ATS | 7-3 O/U (Last 10 Games)
- Miami’s Recent Streak: 3 straight SU losses | 1 ATS win | 4 Unders in last 5 games
- Dallas’ Recent Streak: 1 SU win | 5 straight ATS wins | 1 Under in last 5 games
Applying the Law of Average
When analyzing the L.O.A. edge in this matchup, we look for teams on opposite trajectories:
- Miami Heat: Three straight losses, including a 101-115 defeat vs. Oklahoma City Thunder in their last game.
- Dallas Mavericks: Coming off a 4-point win against Golden State (111-107), making it their 5th ATS win in a row.
📌 Key Betting Signal: Miami has struggled, while Dallas has been outperforming the spread consistently. According to the Law of Average, Dallas may be entering an “overbought” situation (too many ATS wins in a row), while Miami is “oversold” (a team due for a bounce-back).
Betting Insights Using L.O.A.
- Against the Spread (ATS) Play:
- Dallas has covered 5 straight ATS games. Historically, teams on such ATS streaks tend to underperform in their next game.
- Miami has lost 3 straight SU but covered 1 of those games. Teams that have lost multiple games in a row tend to bounce back in winnable matchups.
- Betting Angle: Play Miami ATS (-1.5) – expecting a correction.
- Total Play (O/U 221):
- Dallas has gone Under in 7 of their last 10 games.
- Miami has gone Under in 4 of their last 5.
- L.O.A. suggests a potential Over is due, especially if the market is adjusting downward due to recent trends.
- Betting Angle: Play OVER 221 – expecting market correction.
The Law of Average is a powerful betting strategy that helps spot market inefficiencies. In tonight’s Miami vs. Dallas game, it suggests Miami is undervalued after three straight losses, while Dallas might be overvalued after five straight ATS wins. Based on this, the best value play would be:
✅ Miami Heat ATS (-1.5)
✅ Over 221
Always remember, the Law of Average isn’t foolproof, but when combined with the Raymond Report's MVI, PVI, and market trend analysis, it provides a strong foundation for smarter betting decisions.
📌 Stay tuned for Article #6 of The 50 Report, where we’ll dive into “Analyzing Strength of Schedule (SOS)”!
