As the NHL season progresses from its opening day on October4th in Prague, 2024, we’ve gathered valuable betting data to help you make informed decisions. Analyzing year-to-date (YTD) trends, this article breaks down performance by favorites, underdogs, and over/under totals. Here's what stands out so far in this young NHL season.
Straight-Up (SU) Performance: Favorites Dominating Early
- Favorites SU YTD: 70.5%
- Underdogs SU YTD: 29.5%
From the start of the season, NHL favorites have been highly reliable, winning 70.5% of their games. This Bullish trend indicates that, so far, backing favorites on the moneyline has been profitable. The consistency over the first few weeks should give confidence to bettors looking to ride the favorites, but there are some fluctuations worth noting.
Against the Spread (ATS): Slight Edge to Favorites
- Favorites ATS YTD: 56.6%
- Underdogs ATS YTD: 43.4%
While favorites have been winning straight up at an impressive rate, their performance against the spread (ATS) is more balanced. Favorites have covered the spread in 56.6% of games, leaving a solid 43.4% for underdogs. This opens the door for selective underdog picks, especially in closely contested matchups where the spread offers value.
Over/Under Totals: Neutral Betting Landscape
- Over YTD: 50.4%
- Under YTD: 49.6%
When it comes to over/under betting, the numbers are nearly split right down the middle, with a slight lean towards the Over. At 50.4%, games have been marginally higher scoring, but this Neutral trend suggests that totals betting could go either way. Bettors should consider matchups and recent form to find the right edge on totals.
Breaking Down Recent Short-Term Trends
Recent short-term data shows fluctuations that bettors need to stay on top of:
- 1 Day: Favorites went 100% both SU and ATS on October 23rd, dominating that day’s matchups.
- 3 Days: Over the past 3 days, favorites have won 83.3% of games, and 77% of those games saw them cover the spread.
- 7 Days: In the past week, 81.3% of favorites won SU, and 68% covered ATS, showing a slight cooling but still strong performance.
These short-term bullish trends for favorites give bettors an edge if they look at daily or weekly streaks when making picks.
Key Takeaways
- Favorites Are Strong, But ATS Isn't a Lock: While favorites are dominating straight-up, their ATS record isn’t as overwhelming, making underdog plays still viable.
- Totals Remain Unpredictable: The over/under balance is close to 50/50, so keep an eye on team form, matchups, and recent scoring trends.
- Daily Trends Matter: As seen in daily fluctuations, some days are heavily skewed toward favorites, while others present more opportunities for underdogs and under totals.
With this early data in hand, NHL bettors can sharpen their focus on moneyline favorites, while keeping a closer eye on spread and totals betting for more selective plays. Keep visiting ATS STATS for updated trends and expert analysis as the NHL season unfolds.
