Overall Record:
- Against the Spread (ATS): 23-29-0
- Straight Up (SU): 22-30-0
- Over/Under (O/U): 25-27-0
Trend Analysis:
1. Inconsistent ATS Performance:
The New England Patriots have struggled to cover the spread consistently over the last three years, with a 23-29 record ATS. This indicates that the team has often been overvalued by the market or has underperformed relative to expectations. Bettors relying on the Patriots to cover the spread have generally been disappointed.
2. Subpar SU Record:
With a 22-30 SU record, the Patriots have faced challenges in securing outright victories. This period of transition for the team has resulted in more losses than wins, making them a risky pick for straight-up bets. The inconsistency in performance suggests caution when backing the Patriots to win outright.
3. Moderate O/U Record:
The Patriots’ O/U record of 25-27-0 shows a slight lean towards the under. This trend can be attributed to their often-struggling offense, combined with a defense that has kept games relatively low-scoring. While there isn’t a strong trend in either direction, the slight preference for the under can provide an edge in certain matchups.
Recommended Betting Numbers:
Totals (Over/Under) Bets:
- Bet the Under if the total is above 45.5 points.**
Explanation: When the total is set high, the Patriots' combination of a solid defense and inconsistent offense suggests that the game is more likely to go under. This is particularly true when they face strong defensive teams. - Bet the Over if the total is below 41.5 points.**
Explanation: In situations where the total is set low, the Patriots have shown the ability to participate in higher-scoring games, especially against teams with weaker defenses.
Side Bets (Against the Spread):
- Bet on the Patriots if they are underdogs of 6.5 points or more.
Explanation: The Patriots have performed better when underestimated by the market, making them a value pick as significant underdogs. - Fade the Patriots if they are favorites by 4 points or more.
Explanation: The Patriots have struggled to cover larger spreads, indicating that they may be overvalued in these situations.
