Alabama Crimson Tide vs. A, B, and C Grade Teams: Point Spread Analysis
In this report, we will examine the Alabama Crimson Tide's performance against teams categorized as A (60% or higher win percentage), B (50% to 59.9% win percentage), and C (below 50% win percentage). The data is derived from the Famous Raymond Report at ATS STATS, focusing on Alabama's point spread records over recent seasons.
Performance Against A Grade Teams
Summary:
- Point Spread Record: 22-15-2
- Straight-Up Record: 29-8-1
- Over/Under Record: 22-16-0
- Average Line as Favorite: -11.3
- Average Line as Underdog: +3.2
- Average Score: 34.2 (Alabama) – 24.3 (Opponent)
Analysis:
Alabama has shown resilience against top-tier teams (A Grade) with a solid straight-up record. The Tide's point spread performance is slightly above average, indicating competitive matchups where Alabama often meets or exceeds expectations. Their ability to cover the spread is consistent, especially in games where they are slightly favored or underdogs.
Key Games:
- Win vs. Georgia (2021-12-04): Alabama covered as a 6-point underdog with a 41-24 victory, showcasing their capability to perform under pressure.
- Loss vs. Texas (2023-09-09): Despite being 9.5-point favorites, Alabama fell short, losing 34-24, highlighting occasional struggles against well-prepared A Grade teams.
Performance Against B Grade Teams
Summary:
- Point Spread Record: 6-4-0
- Straight-Up Record: 10-0-0
- Over/Under Record: 6-4-0
- Average Line as Favorite: -19.2
- Average Score: 41.8 (Alabama) – 19.6 (Opponent)
Analysis:
Against B Grade teams, Alabama is dominant straight up, maintaining an undefeated record. The point spread record indicates some challenges in covering large spreads, often due to the competitive nature of these matchups. However, Alabama consistently wins outright, reflecting their superiority over mid-tier opponents.
Key Games:
- Win vs. Auburn (2021-11-27): Alabama narrowly won 24-22 but failed to cover a 20-point spread, showing a trend of close games against B Grade teams.
- Win vs. Mississippi State (2023-09-30): Alabama covered a 16.5-point spread with a 40-17 victory, demonstrating their potential to dominate B Grade opponents when in form.
Performance Against C Grade Teams
Summary:
- Point Spread Record: 7-8-2
- Straight-Up Record: 16-0-0
- Over/Under Record: 7-9-0
- Average Line as Favorite: -34.5
- Average Score: 50.1 (Alabama) – 13.9 (Opponent)
Analysis:
Alabama's straight-up record against C Grade teams is flawless, but their point spread performance is mixed. The Crimson Tide often face large spreads in these matchups, leading to occasional failures to cover. Despite this, their consistent wins highlight their strength against weaker opponents.
Key Games:
- Win vs. Arkansas (2023-10-14): Alabama won 24-21 but failed to cover a 19.5-point spread, emphasizing the challenge of meeting high expectations.
- Win vs. New Mexico State (2019-11-16): Alabama covered a 50.5-point spread with a 59-3 victory, illustrating their capacity for dominance against lesser teams.
Ron's Summary:
The Alabama Crimson Tide's performance against A, B, and C Grade teams reflects their status as a powerhouse in college football. Their ability to win outright against all grades is notable, though covering large spreads remains a challenge, particularly against C Grade teams. Overall, Alabama demonstrates consistency and competitiveness across different levels of competition, reinforcing their reputation as a top program.
Alabama Crimson Tide 2024 Schedule and Expectations
Regular Season
- Sat, Aug 31 – vs Western Kentucky (C Grade)
- Analysis: Alabama should dominate this matchup against a C Grade team. Expect Alabama to be favored by a wide margin, possibly around -35, and likely cover the spread due to their superior talent and depth.
- Sat, Sep 7 – vs South Florida (C Grade)
- Analysis: Another game where Alabama is expected to win comfortably. They should be significant favorites, around -30, and are likely to cover, given their track record against lower-tier opponents.
- Sat, Sep 14 – @ Wisconsin (B Grade)
- Analysis: This matchup presents a tougher challenge. Alabama will be favorites, but the spread might be closer, around -7. They should win, but covering the spread will depend on their ability to manage Wisconsin's physical play.
- Sat, Sep 28 – vs Georgia (A Grade)
- Analysis: A marquee matchup against a fellow powerhouse. The spread could be close, perhaps Alabama -3, reflecting the competitive nature of these teams. Alabama's track record against A Grade teams suggests a strong chance to cover and win.
- Sat, Oct 5 – @ Vanderbilt (C Grade)
- Analysis: Alabama should easily handle Vanderbilt, likely being favored by over -28. Expect them to cover as they exploit mismatches across the field.
- Sat, Oct 12 – vs South Carolina (B Grade)
- Analysis: Alabama will be favorites, possibly around -14, against South Carolina. Given their strength, they are expected to win and cover, especially at home.
- Sat, Oct 19 – @ Tennessee (B Grade)
- Analysis: A challenging road game where Alabama will be favored, potentially around -10. Winning and covering will depend on their ability to control the tempo and limit mistakes.
- Sat, Oct 26 – vs Missouri (C Grade)
- Analysis: Alabama should win decisively, likely as -25 favorites. Covering the spread is expected given their dominance against C Grade teams.
- Sat, Nov 9 – @ LSU (A Grade)
- Analysis: A key rivalry game, Alabama might be slight favorites, perhaps -3, depending on form. This will be a close contest, but Alabama's history suggests they can cover and secure victory.
- Sat, Nov 16 – vs Mercer (C Grade)
- Analysis: A mismatch where Alabama will be favored by a significant margin, around -40. They are expected to win and cover, given their record against similar opponents.
- Sat, Nov 23 – @ Oklahoma (A Grade)
- Analysis: Another high-profile game where Alabama may be slight underdogs or evenly matched. The outcome will hinge on execution and limiting turnovers, but a cover is possible.
- Sat, Nov 30 – vs Auburn (B Grade)
- Analysis: The Iron Bowl will see Alabama as favorites, likely around -7. Their recent success suggests a win and cover are within reach, especially at home.
This schedule provides Alabama with opportunities to demonstrate their prowess across different levels of competition, as they continue their pursuit of excellence in the 2024 season. By comparing game-day lines and totals against historical averages, bettors can gain valuable insights into Alabama's likely performance.
